God, AIDS, Africa & HOPE

pensées of a Catholic priest

“Month-to-month phasing-out of the lockdown has no basis in science”

I think, clearer than in the headline of this blog one cannot point out, that the level-phased lockdown has no room in the minds of scientists. And this verdict comes not from somebody hardly known but from Dr Glenda Gray, a member of the Ministerial Advisory Committee (MAC) and chairperson of the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC). She is a specialist paediatrician and HIV vaccine researcher. She was named one of Time magazine’s 100 most influential people in 2017 and  received South Africa’s highest honour, the Order of Mapungubwe.

She is one of the great academics, President Cyril Ramaphosa says he bases his decisions on, when it comes to Covid-19. Which obviously warrants the question whether he means what he is saying or whether in the top secret meetings without minutes – so indicated by Minister Dlamini-Zuma when asked about the ban of cigarette sale question – those opinions count nothing against the ideology of hard-liners within the Covid-19 Command which, by the way – suddenly extends to the whole cabinet after threats of legal challenges.

Grey makes it clear that the gradual change of lockdown levels with all those rules governing roasted chicken, the prescribed timing of exercise to the question, which kind of T-Shirt can be sold is simply nonsensical and not backed up by any science. She says: “One can argue whether the extension of the lockdown and these alert levels are justified, and I think we could argue that an additional two weeks in the lockdown may have supported the work that had been started and was critical. …  “But the de-escalation, month on month, to various levels is nonsensical and unscientific.”

Government wanted us to believe that we buy time to prepare for the onslaught of the virus – and South Africans willingly gave the requested 3 weeks and also the added 2 weeks extension. But by now, preparations should be done and the virus, which simply will not be stopped but will have a walk through to our society with all the consequences.
While this is a given, the economic consequences are disastrous; people are desperate with no income, curtailed choices on so many not Covid-19 related matters – they are hungry and if we are honest, the physical distancing has never really completely worked in the dense township population as a matter of fact.

Instead of playing with the livelihood of people, with the sanity of people and the despair of poverty; instead of arguing about fine-tuning levels and sitting over long lists of winter related clothing or which flip-flops to ban for sale – life should now go back to a new normal – with the maximum of care for each other, the maximum of safety with physical distancing and face masks. Industries should be able to open again, going to work is for many less dangerous than staying in the township environment with its high population.

Maybe government does not trust itself about the readiness, reflecting on the many failures of governmental interventions or running from parastatals like ESKOM or Transnet, SAA or the Postal Services. Maybe government does not trust its own people; certainly the last weeks showed that it does not trust our democratic rules of engagement or the oversight function of the South African Parliament.

Be it as it may be – it is time to stop wasting energies on lockdown regulations in the different phases; all energy should be put in bringing society up to speed how to make it hip and chic to adhere to safety measures at the workplace or in the public domain.

Dr Ian Sanne, another member of the governmental advisory committee, in real life associate professor at the clinical HIV Research Unit at Wits University and CEO of Right to Care, said the committee was not asked whether the lockdown should downgrade to Level 3, or any broader questions related to the issue. He said: “How can you continue to implement these restrictive levels when the data shows that the transmission of the virus will continue unless you implement non-pharmaceutical interventions [NPIs] to slow the transmission down or get a vaccine? We know what we have to do. We have to implement NPIs … I think the government has failed to understand the psyche of its populace” He also added that due to the lockdown, other chronic sick patients failed to receive their medicine and care putting them into danger.

The disadvantages of a continued lockdown seemingly outweighs the benefits and causes more harm through hunger, lack of income, malnutrition, depression and lack for services for chronic ill patients. These are all  reason to phase out a measure which alienates more and more South Africans from their government while creating havoc for the personal lives of so many.

Nobody advocates a “back to the old normal” – but common sense dictates to take economically question and scientific rationale into account when making decisions in such times – and a honesty paired with skills to understand the situation holistically which definitely is for some decision maker lacking for reasons which to explain would need another blog.

Filed under: Networking, Politics and Society, Reflection, Society and living environment, South Africa, Uncategorized, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Time to change tune

Listening to Police Minister Cele about non-deserving South Africans, because they don’t behave; sitting through announcements by Dlamini-Zuma feeling a deja-vu of your primary school and absorbing the somehow wicked logic of Patel:
South Africans have to endure at the moment a lot of moments where the good-will of giving time for government to prepare for an influx of Covid-19 cases vanishes with raised speed.
The outcry of politicians following the first 3 hours, where South Africans were allowed out for exercising in the early hours of May first were remarkable. Potentially 58 Million are allowed after 5 weeks of lockdown to walk and jog from 6 to 9 am – parks and beaches are still closed to the public – and those, who anyhow can walk around as it pleases them, are upset about the liberty taken to use the time.
The Western Province government with Premier Alan Winde rightly pointed out that common sense was missing looking at the directive forcing those millions to go out in the dark hours of the morning to get some fresh air.

I have written about the shadows of the past, haunting our present existence, and they explain some of what is happening. Seeing the long queues of people flocking sometimes in the thousands to receive a food parcel is a sign how desperate people are. While physical distancing is in such cases not an option it underlines the situation most South Africans are in at the moment: hungry, without income, depending on hand-outs of NGO’s and governmental agencies.  The pictures we see speak volumes of the dignity lost even more than before the crisis.

Looking at all of this and the mechanisms driving the process there is a real danger that the rule of democracy and its values are eroded. Applying BEE on state assistance, even if after the court decision legally permissible, is such a sign that the very values of the new democratic South Africa has no say any more in the times of need. South Africa indeed has now the taint of being unique in denying assistance based on race. 7 million jobs will be gone if the predictions are correct – and still: ideology trumps any concern for job conservation. This is bad news going forward and it shows lip-service of many politicians when they proclaim that South Africa is for all South Africans.

It is time to change tune: it must be clear that in the new South Africa every person, whose livelihood is in danger,  is eligible for governmental support. And instead of threats and petty rules people should be encouraged to prepare and think of opening up the economy again with jobs saved and new ones created. Instead of scare tactics we need encouragement  and a light at the end of the tunnel, instead of numbers throwing around and unclear data resources we need more transparency and honesty.
The people of South Africa gave government five weeks to prepare for climbing numbers of infections – now is the time to show that they used the time wisely besides fighting cigarettes, alcohol and roasted chickens.

Climbing numbers of infections – often touted by newspaper headlines and politicians as the most important information of the day – are not really news as this is how a pandemic works. The real questions are: How high is the ratio of infection? How many of the infected really need special care? How many tests are done and are we able to identify clusters? I think the Western Cape is on the right track here – testing and catching those in contact with an infected person is the key for opening the economy and providing so for those in need of work and income.

Changing the tune means to stop handing out food parcels and degrading the dignity of people but opening up work spaces again with the necessary prudence – but also knowing, that this virus will stay with us for the years to come – and holding off till the pandemic is gone is simply not an option.
Changing the tune means to take people with you as a politician and not to treat them like school-kids or stupid youngsters. Transparency and honesty is the key – as long as people sense politics behind decisions the goodwill of people will vanish into thin air.
It is not the time for ideology, racism or scoring points – its time for decency, humanity and hard work for the so often quoted “our people”.

Filed under: Africa, General, Politics and Society, Reflection, Society and living environment, South Africa, Uncategorized, , , , , , , , , ,

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